Giving Thanks

These certainly are interesting and trying times. It has been a challenging year for most of us, and painful for many. Still, we have much to be thankful for. Doug and I are very grateful for the support and loyalty of you, our clients and friends. We are glad to associate with top notch professionals at our office and in our transactions. We look forward to a healthier and more stable economy, and we have reason to hope for this by next Thanksgiving. The new Case Shiller report documents a continued positive trend for housing, press release. Our market, especially close-in Portland, has proven to be resilient, our Sellers pragmatic, and our Buyers informed and respectful. Add good health to the above, and we certainly have reasons to celebrate this holiday with full hearts (and bellies!).

Wishing you and yours the very best,

Tom and Doug

Economic Bullet Points

As we’ve noted previously, our Principal Broker is a engaged student of the global economy. He recently shared the following with us. Bottom line: signs continue to support a guarded optimism, and interest rates as well as inventory make this a powerful time to be a Buyer.

• Employment has increased in 12 industrialized countries this year (2009)
• Economic indicators across the world show significant increases:
•      China – vehicle production +153%
•      Canada – housing permits +98.4%
•      China – goods imports +75.4%
•      Eurozone  – auto sales +62.8%
•      Australia – housing permits +52.5%
•      Korea – industrial production +46.8%
•      Japan – industrial production +39.95%
•      Brazil – industrial production +19.9%
•      Australia – housing permits +10.8%
•      US / China – store sales +5.6%
• Case Shiller house-price index is expected to trend up in November due to mortgage rates and tax credit. Housing prices are increasing in 10 industrialized countries that saw decreases one year ago, Press Release.
• Vehicle production has averaged 8.2 million for November. Combined with a stronger than expected October, this may explain why steel production is up 49.6% annualized.
• PPI has increased due to surges in fuel and food, but a drop in core service costs offsets these increases and keeps inflation concerns at a low level for the time being.
• Home foreclosure filings fell 3% in October for the third straight month.

On The Other hand:

• Eurozone GDP growth exists, but is fragile.
• Economists are revising their GDP growth projection down to 2.3%. The excess in labor is disturbing and low GDP growth will not create jobs.
• Mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week due to huge jump in refinancing. However, demand for money for home purchases sank to a nine year low.
• House prices nationally continue to be impacted by heavily discounted properties that impact sales figures.

Economy Snapshot

While it’s premature to burst into song ala “Out of The Woods” from the Wizard Of Oz soundtrack, things are looking much better. Richard Read at The Oregonian reported on local and national improvements (here it is if you missed it, it’s a good read). The trend graphs of key indicators show many positive developments, check it out at NYT.com. Interest rates remain excellent and banks are lending money to qualified borrowers. FHA loan rates are also great and you don’t need 20% down to get financing. Because of a general erroneous sense of things, this is still news to many people who want to take advantage of this market, but thought they couldn’t get a loan. Don’t assume! Call a qualified lender and get the real skinny!