This Week’s Economics Discussion

Filed Under Economy · Tagged: , ,  

There is every reason to believe the recovery is fully entrenched. There are figures to indicate that GDP growth is stronger than expected. However, inflation is a genuine concern due to high deficit spending. This is probably the mushy bottom that we expected to see. Smart investors looking for long-term cash flow or appreciation will be rewarded and timers of the market may be at risk. This is a great time to buy. There is still seller uncertainty but it is exciting to look forward and see great possibilities ahead.

Some Data to Chew On:

· Unemployment claims 4-week average over the past 40 weeks has plunged from 659,000 to 441,000. This is substantial

· Case-Schiller’s House Price Index over the past 8 months appears to have increased at 6.2%

· Retail sales appear to have increased at a 3.5% in Q4 suggesting REAL consumer spending increased at a 2% clip

· Federal tax receipts have increased at a 12.7% rate over past 6 months indicating INCOMES are GROWING

· Corporate profits have surged over the past 3 months as federal tax receipts show massive increases of close to 600%

· US real GDP is on track for 4.5% growth in Q4

 Headwinds:

· Small business hiring remains at recession lows. It is amazing that employment has improved, given this fact

· Credit is still largely unavailable to small business

· Homebuilders show very weak activity as mortgage apps plunged to a 12-year low

 Signs of Inflation:

· Treasury Inflated Protected Securities have turned up significantly. A true sign of inflation

· Economic Cycle Research International has turned up as well. This is an important decision tool

· US core import prices have increased 20.5% in past 6 months

· CPI has swung from -1.9% to +2.8% Y/Y

· India CPI up +20.5% in past 6 months

· Israeli CPI up 4.8% in past 11 months

 The above information was compiled by our Principal Broker, Tom Burk

January 22, 2010 by beebedou : No Comments

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