Portland in Top 10 Cities Where it is Smarter to Buy Than Rent

This Week’s Economics Discussion

There is every reason to believe the recovery is fully entrenched. There are figures to indicate that GDP growth is stronger than expected. However, inflation is a genuine concern due to high deficit spending. This is probably the mushy bottom that we expected to see. Smart investors looking for long-term cash flow or appreciation will be rewarded and timers of the market may be at risk. This is a great time to buy. There is still seller uncertainty but it is exciting to look forward and see great possibilities ahead.

Some Data to Chew On:

· Unemployment claims 4-week average over the past 40 weeks has plunged from 659,000 to 441,000. This is substantial

· Case-Schiller’s House Price Index over the past 8 months appears to have increased at 6.2%

· Retail sales appear to have increased at a 3.5% in Q4 suggesting REAL consumer spending increased at a 2% clip

· Federal tax receipts have increased at a 12.7% rate over past 6 months indicating INCOMES are GROWING

· Corporate profits have surged over the past 3 months as federal tax receipts show massive increases of close to 600%

· US real GDP is on track for 4.5% growth in Q4

 Headwinds:

· Small business hiring remains at recession lows. It is amazing that employment has improved, given this fact

· Credit is still largely unavailable to small business

· Homebuilders show very weak activity as mortgage apps plunged to a 12-year low

 Signs of Inflation:

· Treasury Inflated Protected Securities have turned up significantly. A true sign of inflation

· Economic Cycle Research International has turned up as well. This is an important decision tool

· US core import prices have increased 20.5% in past 6 months

· CPI has swung from -1.9% to +2.8% Y/Y

· India CPI up +20.5% in past 6 months

· Israeli CPI up 4.8% in past 11 months

 The above information was compiled by our Principal Broker, Tom Burk

Economic Bullet Points

As we’ve noted previously, our Principal Broker is a engaged student of the global economy. He recently shared the following with us. Bottom line: signs continue to support a guarded optimism, and interest rates as well as inventory make this a powerful time to be a Buyer.

• Employment has increased in 12 industrialized countries this year (2009)
• Economic indicators across the world show significant increases:
•      China – vehicle production +153%
•      Canada – housing permits +98.4%
•      China – goods imports +75.4%
•      Eurozone  – auto sales +62.8%
•      Australia – housing permits +52.5%
•      Korea – industrial production +46.8%
•      Japan – industrial production +39.95%
•      Brazil – industrial production +19.9%
•      Australia – housing permits +10.8%
•      US / China – store sales +5.6%
• Case Shiller house-price index is expected to trend up in November due to mortgage rates and tax credit. Housing prices are increasing in 10 industrialized countries that saw decreases one year ago, Press Release.
• Vehicle production has averaged 8.2 million for November. Combined with a stronger than expected October, this may explain why steel production is up 49.6% annualized.
• PPI has increased due to surges in fuel and food, but a drop in core service costs offsets these increases and keeps inflation concerns at a low level for the time being.
• Home foreclosure filings fell 3% in October for the third straight month.

On The Other hand:

• Eurozone GDP growth exists, but is fragile.
• Economists are revising their GDP growth projection down to 2.3%. The excess in labor is disturbing and low GDP growth will not create jobs.
• Mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week due to huge jump in refinancing. However, demand for money for home purchases sank to a nine year low.
• House prices nationally continue to be impacted by heavily discounted properties that impact sales figures.

Economy Snapshot

While it’s premature to burst into song ala “Out of The Woods” from the Wizard Of Oz soundtrack, things are looking much better. Richard Read at The Oregonian reported on local and national improvements (here it is if you missed it, it’s a good read). The trend graphs of key indicators show many positive developments, check it out at NYT.com. Interest rates remain excellent and banks are lending money to qualified borrowers. FHA loan rates are also great and you don’t need 20% down to get financing. Because of a general erroneous sense of things, this is still news to many people who want to take advantage of this market, but thought they couldn’t get a loan. Don’t assume! Call a qualified lender and get the real skinny!

October 28, 2009 – Economic Report

A summary of economic information compiled for your enlightenment by our Principal Broker, Tom Brock, MBA

·House Prices Stalling – ISI’s house price has stopped improving y/y and they expect it to tick down for a period of time. This is reflective of the expiration of the tax credit. However, the Case Shiller did tick up in August and September. This can be considered a shot in the arm for consumer balance sheets and may slow foreclosures if consumers feel they are not “under water.”

·Inventories across the country have been drawn down a record amount. This is all a part of cost cutting. Profits have increased and combined with lower corporate costs we have a powerful engine for economic growth over the next 4 quarters.

·Very Complex Economic Outlook – Normally from a recession this deep, you will see massive growth in the first 4 quarters of recovery. This is unlikely to happen this time around. However, 2% growth in 2H of this year and 4% overall next year do seem likely. This is enough to create employment, at least to a limited degree. Housing and auto sales have not shown the sustainable recovery that many people expected; however, chain store sales are much stronger than expected and real consumer spending in Q3 rose at a strong rate. Corporate profits are better than expected. Unemployment claims are declining and employment is poised to grow soon. Capital spending is stronger than expected. Foreign economies are clearly improving. This is a positive sign for the US especially considering the weak dollar and its effect on exports.

Again, an unprecedented global recovery is likely to drag a sluggish US economy into a sustainable recovery. Taiwan and HK imports are up considerably. This indicates a booming Chinese economy that is driving consumer activity. China’s industrial output may rise 16% in Q4. On the flip side, this will drive O&G consumption which could fuel inflation in the US or stagflation if our GDP does not continue to grow…